The Lithium used in electric cars is not a renewable resource (Part 2 / 2)

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As explained in the first part of this article, battery producers will soon become the largest consumers of lithium. They are the ones who create the increase in demand that we are now observing and the market is galvanized by political ambitions like those of Obama for example. At least $ 1.5 billion was spent in the United States to help finance 26 of the 30 plants producing electric vehicle components, including 9 battery factories.

In this context, new lithium extraction projects are developed / studied to increase both the number of companies extracting lithium and the number of countries where it is extracted. But let’s look at it in a more practical way: how much lithium will cars consume and what are the available resources identified on the planet?

Estimated demand of lithium for the automotive industry

Note: We are only considering the automotive applications. However, China’s demand for more traction batteries is significant (two-wheeled mobility of disabled people, carts, etc).

The estimated demand of lithium presupposes the evaluation of, on one hand, the lithium content needed in an electric vehicle, and on the other hand,  the demand for electric vehicles. Moreover the demand has to be divided into the following subdivisions:  all-electric vehicles, hybrid rechargeable vehicles, hybrid vehicles.

How much lithium does a battery contain?

The amount of material in a battery is related to the amount of energy it can hold, so we seek to identify how much lithium is required to store a kilowatt-hour. Figures that vary by almost one order of magnitude are mentioned in the literature, as shown in the chart below.

Sources: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]

Some references discuss general values ​​while others such as the Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois state the battery technology (cathode and anode) to which the value is referred. In a well documented report, the consulting company Meridian International Research explains why the retained value should be between two and three kilograms of lithium carbonate* per kilowatt-hour. According to this paper:

1. Considering only the theoretical storage potential of the element lithium, which is to say by disregarding all loss of use, the content required is 385g Li2CO3/kWh.

2. Since the actual mass capacity of Li-ion batteries is 70-120 Wh / kg and that it represents 1/4 of the theoretical amount (400-450 Wh / kg), in reality four times more lithium is needed than the theoretical amount to operate a battery**. This significant difference between theoretical capacity and actual capacity is due to the desired discharge rate, the constituent elements (ex. potential decrease of the anode during discharge), the kinematics of the reaction and the loss of performance after cycling. The batteries of all-electric cars designed to provide energy service are more affected by the loss of capacity than the batteries of hybrid cars, which are sized according to power.

3. In order to mitigate the loss of performance and ensure the same continuous autonomy of the vehicle even after a drop of 20% in their performance, manufacturers would oversize the initial capacity (ie installed capacity could be 25% higher than the nominal capacity) .

4. Finally, the amount of lithium contained in a kilowatt-hour battery does not provide information on earlier stages of processing: industrial yield of the process of removing sodium present in the lithium carbonate and obtaining a sufficient purity would be about 70% (80% in the laboratory).

Projected number of electric vehicles

As we noted in a previous article, the level of uncertainty is also high with regard to the speed at which vehicles enter the electric car market. If one follows the assumption of Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault, the market share would be 10% in 2020. The total number of cars sold that year, could be according to analysts 62 million, 71 million, 89 million or even 107 million. Moreover, the distribution of segments is also of importance, since a hybrid car has about 1-2 kWh of batteries, a rechargeable hybrid car around 10-15 kWh and an all-electric car 20-40 kWh (see also here for more references).

By 2020, Dundee Capital Markets anticipates 14% all electric cars, 29% of rechargeable hybrid cars  and 57% of  hybrid vehicles, while JD Power and Associates anticipates one third all- Electrical and two-thirds of hybrid vehicles, without giving further details. On the other hand, if we refer to the recent report from the Department of Energy on the one million electric cars that will circulate in the United States in 2015, we’ve observed that cars produced in the US will have an average of 21 kWh of batteries. This is well above what would be produced with the global market shares listed above.

In conclusion, if we make the assumption that 7.5 million electric cars are produced in 2020 with 15 kWh of batteries each containing 2 kgLi2CO3/kWh, the annual demand at that time for the auto industry would be 225,000 tons of carbonate lithium. By comparison, overall demand was about 150,000 tons in 2008.

Estimating Lithium supply

Available quantities (in tons of lithium carbonate)

We will use the definitions and the terms of Philippe Bihouix and Benoitt Guillebon to differentiate the types of lithium resources :
- The “reserves” are identified resources  and whose operation is profitable.
- The “reserve base” designates an identified and explored resource that can not be extracted at current prices.
- “inferred” reserves are reserves that indicate an identified geological potential not yet explored.

All of these reserves are called “identified” resources. By adding the unidentified geological potential, we get “ultimate” resources.

According to the latest estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey published in January 2011, the identified reserves consist of 33 million tons of lithium carbonate. However, high purity materials are needed to produce batteries and only 80% of the reserves would be able to satisfy these quality requirements. Thus, 26 MtLi2CO3 would be “eligible”.

If 70% of this amount was used for the manufacturing of lithium batteries only, this would be equivalent to 616 million cars (with the same assumptions as above, or 15 kWh /car with 2 kgLi2CO3/kWh).

Strategic Dimension  of Supply base – example of Bolivia

In a context of limited resources whose geographical distribution is uneven and currently limited to some producers, states and battery manufacturers feel the need to secure their supply;  while investors are betting on lithium mines shares.

Between one third and one half of the base reserves of lithium are for example in the Salar of Uyuni which extends over 10,000 km2 in Bolivia, a state governed since 2006 by Evo Morales.

In recent years, the new president has been courted by governmental and industrial powers abroad. According to this source, Japan offer economic aid to the country in exchange for lithium and rare earth materials. The French group Bolloré, whose “Blue Car” will be used by the city of Paris for “Autolib” and who has opened a production plant for lithium polymer batteries, has also expressed interest in Bolivia several times in 2008 and 2009. South Korea, Venezuela and without doubt other countries are also candidates to extract the gigantic salar.

Yet we learned in late 2010 at a press conference where presidents Ahmadinejad and Morales were present that it was ultimately Iran that Bolivia had chosen to assist it in providing material, technical and training support. The deal will not simply consist of extracting and selling crude lithium but of establishing a complete industrial chain for the production of batteries and other products. Moreover, Iran will provide $ 200 million in revolving credit and open its food market to  products from Bolivia.

The Bolivian market therefore seems difficult to access for states and foreign automakers, and French manufacturers such as Bollore will head to additional partnerships in Argentina.

Recycling as additional reserve

Lead-acid batteries, which are currently the most widespread, are composed of 60% to 80% recycled material and 90% of them are recycled at the end of their lifespan with a well controlled process. Therefore, one can imagine a similar “cycle” structure for lithium batteries in the future but for now the recycling of lithium is not profitable. Indeed the cost of lithium represents 3% of the total cost of manufacturing a battery and is less expensive than cobalt or nickel, which are recovered. Moreover, it represents a small percentage of the weight.

However, recycling is seen – according to the consulting firm Frost & Sullivan – as the main supply source of lithium in the future. It will play an important role once a significant number of batteries will be thrown away starting in 2016 and the value of this market could reach about $ 2 billion by 2022 (with 500,000 batteries available for recycling).

The first project for recycling lithium-ion started in 1992 and was initiated by Sony and Sumitomo Metals a year after the marketing of batteries (read more here and here). Since then, several companies have recycling processes that could isolate the lithium and allow the reuse of nearly almost all of the material, including Kinsbursky Brothers in the US (parent company of Toxco located in California) and Umicore in Belgium.

Their methods differ:
- In the Kinsbursky Brothers plants, batteries are crushed and the debris is sorted selectively. A method of cryogenation allows the batteries to cool to about -200 ° C with liquid nitrogen to disable them.
- Umicore meanwhile uses a foundry, whose exhaust gases are treated. The metals are put in granulated form and then recovered.

Of course, automakers are already thinking about the recycling of their batteries, like Tesla Motors in California which will request help from both the companies mentioned (see diagram below).

We should note the presence of the French company Recupyl in the segment of recycling of batteries (including Li-ion) in the U.S. Finally, a start-up called Onto Technology has developed an interesting method that recovers the materials of cathode and anode for reuse directly in batteries. This innovative process that avoids going back to the elementary stage would be less energy intensive.

Conclusion

The transition from gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles seems well underway. Governments are committing in this direction not only to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also to reduce their dependence on oil-producing countries.

However, if a country like the United States, which has significant resources of lithium, can ensure its independence, other non-lithium producing countries such as France will be importers of this strategic resource. The risk of a new alliance of producers and exporters of lithium, similar to OPEC, is hence evoked by Umicore. Indeed, the limited resources of lithium and the growing demand of importing countries may push prices upward. To prevent possible speculation and unsustainable dependence with respect to this commodity, diversification of battery technologies used in the automotive industry will be required.

Moreover if lithium is, like oil, a finite resource, it has the advantage of being recyclable. A country constituting a substantial stock in light of its needs and mastering techniques for efficient recycling will reduce its risk in relation to the supply of lithium. So, if France decides to invest in research on new battery technologies and recycling we will be able to proudly say: “In France, we do not have lithium, but we have ideas.”

* Reminder: the conversion between the quantity of lithium carbonate and the amount of pure lithium is 5.3.

** Other figures are sometimes mentioned, but the magnitude of the ratio is comparable. For example, Professor Schoonman mentionned in his lectures at Stanford and mass capacities of 500-550 kWh / kg in theory and 150 kWh / kg in practice for li-ion/metal li-oxyde batteries.